最近这本书很红。《人体使用手册》，作者是吳清忠，网上也有免费的版本。

看了以后，觉得有必要10点以前睡觉，就算作不到，也要保证8个小时的睡眠时间。以前也听过相同的告诫，可惜都还是任性。

工作的关系，最近在看一些酒店。Found this very interesting article regarding Hotelier Haytt's expansion in Mainland China. It says that the nouveau riche goes to the Grand Hyatt, movie star goes to Park Hyatt, whilst in the Regency Hyatt you will find the workhorses from Microsoft, Goldman Sachs. 

Then which hotel for gray collar work-rat like me? Motel 168, perhaps? Honestly, I am bullish on the hoteliers on the both ends. On the one side, the blue-chip posh hotels dovetails nicely with China's well-heeled upcomers, and on the other side, Motel 168 or Rujia or Xinya chain motels have very robust business to satisfy the mass middle-class market. 

From the investment perspective, it looks like a not-bad investment to buy a two-bed/two-bath room condo in the heart of Beijing with $1.8 million. For a workrat, it is more possible to buy some stocks in luxury brand names. hahahahah

刚才吃晚饭兼夜宵的时候，看《远见》杂志，有一篇李安的故事，有两个小细节让我记住了。第一个讲1993年“喜宴”参加一个欧洲的影展，终于有所收获。台湾驻欧洲的文化部门特此开了庆功宴，结果李安在宴会上当场哭泣不止，被一个朋友拖到卫生间，过了好一阵子，李安的情绪才平静下来。李安说他当时只是想起了这么多年和太太在纽约的困顿生活。第二个讲李安平时在家洗菜时，都是把每根菜都拣出来，每个皱褶都要用水细心的冲洗过。一直都觉得能把做家事当作一项事业，认真的坚持，真的很了不起。

This is not a good news to China. I guess some impacts on China's economy will be seen next year.

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By Nouriel Roubini
Aug 23, 2006

These are not my views but those of the Toll Brothers, the famous luxury McMansions homebuilders, as CNN reported last week. Also, as reported by the WSJ today: In his 40 years as a home builder, Mr. Toll says, he has never seen a slump unfold like the current one. "I've never seen a downturn in housing without a downturn in employment or... some macroeconomic nasty condition that took housing down along with other elements of the economy," he says. "This time, you've got low unemployment, you've got job creation, you've got a stable stock market and relatively low interest rates.". �This followed last week's CNN headline: "Builder: Oversupply slump worst in 40 years. Toll Brothers slashes outlook on new homes as orders plunge and revenue misses forecasts" Indeed, yesterday's sharply falling profit results from the Toll Brothers confirmed their view that this is the worst housing slump in decades. Similarly, Angelo Mozilo, the CEO of Countrywide -- the country's largest independent home mortgage lender - recently stated: "I've never seen a soft-landing in 53 years, so we have a ways to go before this levels out. I have to prepare the company for the worst that can happen." So, effectively the only debate now is whether housing conditions are the worst in the last 40 years or in the last 53 years. So much for the bullish soft-landing wishful thinking coming out of Wall Street these days...

Of course, the message from the Toll Brothers and Countrywide is like the proverbial canary in the mine that is reflective of an ongoing rout -- calling it slowdown or slump is a misnomer by now -- in the US housing market. Every possible indicator of the housing sector that has been coming out in the last few weeks -- and I will discuss their details below - suggests that the housing market is in free fall. �And today's figures on existing home sales and unsold homes say it all; as Bloomberg concisely headlined this morning: U.S. Existing-Home Sales Tumble; Unsold Inventory Is Highest in a Decade �

At this point there no doubt on whether the housing sector is contracting -- real residential investment fell at the annualized rate of 6.4% in Q2. The first derivative of the housing market is clear and negative today and looking ahead for the next few quarters. There is not even a debate about the second derivative of the housing market as any estimate out there suggests that the housing sector will contract at a faster rate in Q3 and Q4 than in Q2. Some official estimates that I have seen suggest that real residential housing will contract at 10% - rather than the Q2 6.4% in the next two quarters. My own estimate -- based on a reading of the coming data -- is that, actually, the contraction is more likely to be of the order of 12-15% annualized rate in the next several quarters. So, the only remaining scary question is about the third derivative of the housing sector and at which point -- in terms of quantities and prices -- the housing market will bottom out. �

I have also argued before that the effects of housing on US economic growth and the role of housing in tipping the US economy into a recession in early 2007 are more significant than the role that the tech sector bust in 2000 played in tipping the economy into a recession in 2001. There are three reasons:�

1. The direct effect of the fall in residential investment in aggregate demand will be as high as the effects of the fall in real investment in the 2000-2001episode. Then, real investment fell by about 2% of GDP. This time around the fall in residential investment alone -- let alone the role other components of real investment, such as software and equipment, that are already falling in Q2 -- will be as large as residential investment could fall from the peak of about 6.2% of GDP (the highest level since the 1950s) to as low as 4% of GDP at the bottom in 2007.
   
   
2. The wealth effect of the tech bust was limited to the elite of folks who had stocks in the NASDAQ. The wealth effect of now falling housing prices -- yes median prices are starting to fall at the national level - affects every home-owning household: the value of residential real estate has also increased to 48.5% of household wealth in 2006 from from 38.7% in 1996. Also, the link between housing wealth rising, increased home equity withdrawal (HEW) and consumption of durable and non durables is very significant (see RGE's Christian Menegatti brief on this), much more than the effect of the tech bubbles of the 1990s. Last year, out of the $800 billion of HEW at least $150 or possibly $200 billion was spent on consumption and another good $100 billion plus went into residential investment (i.e. house capital improvements/expansions). It is enough for house price to flatten -- as they already did recently -- let alone start falling - as they are doing now since they are beginning to fall in major markets -- for the wealth effect to disappear, the HEW dribble to low levels and for consumption to sharply fall. Note that this year there will be large increases in the borrowing costs for $1 trillion of ARM's while this figure for 2007 will be $1.8 trillion. Thus, debt servicing costs for millions of homeowners will sharply increase this year and next.
   
   
3. The employment effects of housing are serious; up to 30% of the employment growth in the last three years was due directly and indirectly to housing. The direct effects are job lost in construction, building materials, real estate brokers and sales agents, and employees of the mortgage finance industry. The indirect effects imply that the role of housing is even larger than 30%. The housing boom led to a boom in consumer durables spending on home appliances and furniture. Indeed, in Q2 real consumption of such goods was already negative: as you have less new home built and purchased and less old homes refurbished and expanded, you get less purchases of home appliances and furniture. There are also other indirect effects of the housing bust on employment, even on the purchases of motor vehicles. Indeed, the current auto sector slump is not unrelated to the housing slump. As the Financial Times put recently, the sharp fall in the sales of Ford's pick-up trucks is related to the housing slump as such truck are widely purchased by real estate contractors. And indeed in Q2 real consumer durables (that include both cars, home appliances and furniture all related to housing) already fell, consistent with the view that we have now have a glut in the stock of consumer durables (durables consumption has a investment-like nature to it as such goods last for a long time).�Thus, as housing sector slumps, the job and income and wage losses in housing will percolate throughout the economy.

How bad are the signals coming from the housing sector? As a recent news headline clearly put it: it is simply UGLY. Indeed, all the indicators from the housing sectors - including the latest housing starts and the homebuilders (NAHB) forward looking business conditions - indicate a housing sector that is literally in free fall. New home sales started to fall since the beginning of 2006 and in some regions they are down over 30% relative to a year ago. As Bloomberg summarized today the new housing data: "Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell more than expected in July, resulting in the biggest supply of unsold homes in more than a decade, as higher mortgage rates discouraged would-be home buyers.. Purchases declined 4.1 percent last month to an annual rate of 6.33 million, the lowest since January 2004, from 6.6 million in June, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Sales fell 11.2 percent compared with a year earlier." �Indeed, the number of unsold homes and the ratio of unsold homes to new home sales has therefore risen sharply to over 5.5 months of supply. Similarly the ratio of unsold homes to existing home sales has also sharply increased. These are clear indicator of a glut of unsold homes in the market.� Housing starts are also sharply down elative to a year ago and expected to fall further over the next few quarters. Note also that, while overall mortgage applications are still up in the latest figures published today, due to sustained refinancing applications, applications for purchase applications have fallen 1.0% during the last week, this being� fifth� fall in� the� last six� weeks. Moreover, there is a large amount of evidence that suggests increasing cancellation of initial mortgage applications, as the slump in the housing market and in the economy is now scaring households considering buying a home. Thus, the official data on purchase mortgage applications are very likely to exceed actual home sales.�

More generally, note that when demand for housing initially falls relative to a glut of supply, the initial market response is not on price, as it is the case of financial market where prices adjust rapidly, but rather on the quantity of unsold homes and on how long unsold homes stay on the market. Housing prices, unlike financial assets, are sluggish. This market inventory adjustment eventually leads to lower prices once sellers realize that demand is low and that waiting is not going to help.

The housing market has thus followed so far the predicted various stages of adjustment to cycle driven by the initial housing bubble: initially a glut of supply of new homes as high prices (driven in part by speculative demand) led to high and excessive production of new homes; then a fall in demand as speculative high prices and rising rates made the purchases of housing less affordable to many; then, the ensuing inventory adjustment -- an increase in unsold homes. Then, the reduction in the production of new homes -- lower housing starts -- as homebuilders with falling revenues and profits and lower expected demand finally reacted to the growing glut of unsold inventories. Indeed, the value of home builders' shares on the NYSE has fallen by almost 50% relative to a year ago. �Finally, we have now a price adjustment in two directions: a) an increase in rents as housing affordability fell since more and more households could not afford to pay the speculative prices of existing and new homes; this increase in rents is now correctly jacking up owner equivalent rent and increasing headline CPI inflation; b) the beginning of a fall in actual housing prices as the glut of unsold homes is now putting downward pressure on actual prices.� (for more on recent indicators of the housing bust see the RGE Monitor cluster of readings on housing indicators)

The evidence on falling home prices is now becoming clearer. Since the end of World War II, there has never been a year on year fall in housing prices. There have been instead several quarters in which housing prices declined. Of course in some regions where there were housing busts prices declined for a while: in Texas during the housing bust of the mid 1980s that led to the S&L crisis; in California in the early 1990s following the recession in that state; in Boston in 1990. Those episodes were all associated with the housing bust that was related to the 1990-1991 recession So, you do not need a persistent year-on-year fall in median housing prices to have a housing bust; such bust can occur even if prices are flattening or falling in some regions, but not nationally. Moreover, such regional bust can be associated with national recession, as in the 1990-91 episode. So, the fact that the latest housing bubble was concentrated on the two coasts (North East all the way to Florida; and West Coast, especially California) does not mean that the coming housing bust in these regions will not have national macro effects. For one thing, the value of the housing stock in those two regions is close to 50% of the total housing stock given the bubble of recent years. Thus, a housing bust in the two coasts can and will have macro effects.

Indeed, today the National Association of Realtors reported today that the median price of an existing home rose only 0.9 percent in July from a year ago. So, housing prices are practically flat at the national level. Worse, relative to a year ago housing prices have already fallen in the North East (-2.1%), Mid-West (-0.6%) and the West (-0.3%). So, not only housing prices are falling in the bubbly two coast; they are also starting to fall in the Mid-West, the region where the conventional wisdom was that there was no housing bubble. The fact that home prices are falling in the Mid-West where prices did not skyrocket in the bubble years is a scary signal of how much the housing bust and glut in supply will lead to a sharp fall in housing prices in the quarters ahead with painful effects on the wealth, and thus consumption, of households.� You can expect falling median housing prices, on a year-on-year basis, at the national level starting this month of August: indeed, today's figures on the glut of unsold homes - much larger than in the housing bust of the early 1990s - are only consistent with a highly likely actual fall in home prices in the months ahead and throughout most of 2007. Note� also that, on an inflation adjusted basis, real home prices (relative to the CPI index) are already falling at a 4% plus rate.

Also, as noted by Dean Baker: "current house price indices are failing to pick up the full decline in prices because they miss the various concessions (seller paid closing costs, buyer-side realtor bonuses, and seller subsidized mortgages) that sellers often use to move their houses."

Even more ominously, futures markets now expect that house prices will fall during 2007. Following the lead and prodding of Robert Shiller -- the maverick Yale professor who predicted the 2000 stock bust and is now predicting a housing bust - the Chicago Mercantile Exchange opened this spring a new futures market for house prices in ten U.S. cities. While this market is very new and still relatively illiquid, it is now predicting that U.S. house prices will fall in 2007 at the national average level, for the first time in over fifty years. The index of this futures' market for the entire US is projecting a 5% price fall in 2007. And the futures contracts for individual cities show expected declines in housing prices even larger than 5% for Miami, New York, Boston, San Francisco, Boston, San Diego and Las Vegas.

The likely fall in median home prices in 2007 may actually turn out to be larger than the 5% priced in the futures markets. In fact, one of the peculiar features of the latest housing cycle has been the presence of a large housing bubble: prices were going up well above economic fundamentals because of the speculative demand coming from expectations of increased housing prices that were feeding further speculative demand: "condo flipping" is the popular term for this speculative demand. Now that the bubble is bursting the fall in prices will be sharper than the one implied by medium term fundamantals as the initial price increase was due to a bubble that is bursting and leading to a fall in speculative demand: with prices now falling homeowners and speculators have no incentive to buy new homes as they expect prices to be lower in the future. So, an expected price fall leads to fall in speculative and fundamental demand and triggers actual larger than otherwise fall in actual prices. The speculative excess of a price bubble will now bring the bust of this price bubble. While the effect will be slower than in asset markets where prices adjust instantaneously (due to the sluggish nature of housing prices and their slow adjustment to increased inventories) eventually this price adjustment will occur - as it is now - and it will be very persistent over time. So, you can expect falling housing prices throughout most of 2007.

So, the simple conclusion from the analysis above is that this is indeed the biggest housing slump in the last four or five decades: every housing indictor is in free fall, including now housing prices. By itself this slump is enough to trigger a US recession: its effects on real residential investment, wealth and consumption, and employment will be more severe than the tech bust that triggered the 2001 recession. And on top of the housing bust, US consumers are facing oil above $70, the delayed effects of rising Fed Fund and long term rates, falling real wages, negative savings, high debt ratios and higher and higher debt servicing ratios. This is the tipping point for the US consumer and the effects will be ugly. Expect the great recession of 2007 to be much nastier, deeper and more protracted than the 2001 recession.

And the housing bust is not going to be only a US phenomenon. As I will discuss in another blog, housing bubbles festered in many other economies including many European ones. Thus, the combination of high oil prices, delayed effects of rising interest rates and slump of housing that is now leading to a US recession is a phenomenon that is common to many other economies, including several European ones. So, expect the same deadly combinations of three ugly bears (slumping housing, high oil prices and rising interest rates) to hammer Goldilocks and sharply hurt Europe and other economies in the world.

Thursday morning update:

This� morning's data on new homes sales, inventories of new homes and prices of new homes fully confirm and reinforce my analysis yesterday that this will be the worst housing bust - calling it slump is too mild - in decades. And since median home prices may actually fall on a year-on-year basis in 2007 - something that has not happened since the Great Depression of the 1930s - this may� end up being the biggest housing bust in the last 75 years, not just 40 years as the Toll Brothers argue or 53 years as Countrywide argues. As reported by Bloomberg this morning:

New Home Sales in U.S. Fell to a 1.072 Million Pace by Bob Willis

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- New home sales in the U.S. fell last month and inventories rose to a record, raising the risk for the economy that the housing market slowdown will become more pronounced.

Purchases of new homes, which account for about 15 percent of the market, dropped 4.3 percent to an annual pace of 1.072 million, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Sales in the Midwest slumped to the lowest level in almost nine years. The median U.S. home price rose 0.3 percent from July 2005, the smallest rise since December 2003.

The weakening housing market is leaving builders with record inventory and little choice but to reduce prices at a time when profits are declining. Some Federal Reserve policy makers have said a slump in housing is one of their biggest concerns because refinancing, which provided homeowners with extra cash to spend, may dry up as home values decline.

"There is no question we have what could be called a housing recession," said James O'Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, who forecast a drop to 1.075 million. "I don't think we've seen the full effect of this yet on the overall economy."

The decline in new home purchases follows yesterday's report that showed a drop in sales of previously owned houses to the lowest in more than two years. The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales, which make up about 85 percent of all purchases, declined 4.1 percent to an annual pace of 6.33 million in July.

加班到9点，终于可以舒口气到楼下买晚饭。到了2楼，看到那个Dublin Exchange酒吧的经理站在那儿。远远看到我，对我笑笑，然后用英语问我，你干什么工作到现在？我也笑了，于是和他闲聊起来。这位仆先生给了我一张他的名片，我开玩笑说以后到他的餐厅来吃饭要打折。他问我是在那个公司上班，听说是在H银行，他马上又问是不是在那个那个老外的下面。看来他还真熟悉这儿的人脉。随后，他说奥银行可从来不加班，尽管他们的老板经常在下班时间到他的酒吧来。他说我可以考虑到这个银行来，有更多自己的fun time。最后，我告诉他我的英文名字。他让我等他2分钟。我还在想看来他会给我一本免费的鸡尾酒。结果，他从店里拿出一本书来，说书里有我这个英文名字的解释。可惜，他找了半天，也没有找到我这个英文名字的意思。我在想，可能这个酒吧老板今天有点喝高了。不论如何，他还是让我的加班时间有了点声色。

有人说我现在的这个公司就是世界上最大的一个大锅饭国企，身在其中，对一些规矩有些体会，举几个例子：

1。Dress Code

半个月前收到邮件通知，可以穿business casual。为了统一对于business casual的认识，特别附上了一个manual，有照片的，告诉你什么样得衣服叫business casual。

2。Invitation Card

Group CEO来路演，结果每个人都收到一封制作非常精良的邀请卡，在打开信封之前要求签名，表示签收。

3。Job Description Training

如何写你的Job Description，以及如何写你的Job Performance Evaluation，这可是非常重要的喔。你的工作是否重要，成绩是否显著，不在于你真的举起袖子，干了什么，而是看你写的如何。所以，公司特此举办了training，来教你如何写自己的JD和工作表现。

4。Trash coordinator

本人最近被隆重推举为本部门的Trash coordinator。故事是这样的。由于本公司都要处理客户的机密文件，所以一些重要敏感的文件要求定期被统一收集，然后外包给本地一个公司销毁。于是每个部门都要有这个Trash coordinator，任务是定时通知管理部门，本部门需要一个，还是两个trash，来收集这些作废的敏感文件。由于此任务需要很高的IQ，所以必须由一定级别的人员来担任。本人恰好符合要求，光荣的被要求作这个工作。于是本人很认真的发信给本部门所有同仁，是否对我申请一个trash有任何的comments/inputs/ideas，结果还是老板回了我信，表示他同意。

这个周末和06年学妹共进午餐，她刚从台湾到上海来，很勇敢也很积极的生活。谈到对于毕业后的困惑，尤其是大龄，优脑，眼高，但是却没有贴身男伴的问题，我们都深深的为自己鸣冤，也才发现自己原来是愚钝的，没有把自己早点market出去，现在只是枉自蹉跎。看看酥梨寿司的日记，我会觉得自己还是一边凉快的好，也许再去读读黄碧云，给自己多点illusion，慢慢走下去，且行且安。

昨天看《上海证券报〉有这样的一段报道：截至今日，沪深两市已有1137家上市公司披露2006年半年报，其净利润同比增长幅度超过10％。半年报披露已近收官，上市公司今年上半年业绩回升之势基本确定。可是，在回头去查，深沪两市1382家公司2006年上半年的净利润比2005年上半年是跌了35%，让我有些困惑。到底哪个说法是正确的？如果后一个数据是正确的，那么可以看到2006年上半年的公司财务表现在主营业务收入，净利润，利润总额都不如2005年的绝对水平。只有每股收益的表现可以，说明主营业务以外的收入贡献了很多，同时每股的FCF from operation也表现很好，难道是再次佐证了主营业务以外的business contributes considerable amount of operating FCF?难道说企业也正在利用不断累积的FCF进行比较多的diversification investment的尝试？这是好的，还是令人担心的迹象？另外的问题就是，如果企业的绝对盈利水平正如净利润所显示的那样，不如2005年的整体水平，又如何能在基本面上支持大市继续走高？还是说，由于市场上的funding liquidity过大，比如QFII的放宽，这些钱会追逐包括股票在内的assets appreciation?

I buy into his arguments on the following two articles.  The writer's name is 周洛华

1. 前两次加息楼价反升，这次呢

2. 我们还没有真正的上市公司

 

 

夏學曼，加州州立大學表演藝術管理碩士。

幾年前，30岁的她抱著病軀和美籍丈夫隔海打官司，曲折艱辛的過程，引起了社會廣泛的同情與討論。 原本的她，是個在異鄉生活的平凡女生，生子後七個月被判定罹癌，丈夫卻在這時有了外遇，不但不照顧她們母子，甚至還將她惡意遺棄。 生病的她返台尋求父母支持，不料厄運還是接踵而來：丈夫對她提出離婚及監護權的告訴、聘用的律師卻又知法玩法，讓她無法為自己的權利辯護、甚至遭受美國五十州的通緝；夫妻共同財產被全部丈夫侵佔、寶貝兒子被診斷出高功能自閉症；自身又遭遇誤診，導致病情持續擴大……

可是看完了这样命运的女人给她儿子的信以后，“一個癌症媽咪給兒子的遺書”，只能感谢我们的世界还有爱，家庭。那恐怕是我们还有那么一点点勇气去面对如此坎坷安排的唯一理由。

 

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斯里尼瓦桑(N. Srinivasan)1989年接任India Cements Ltd.副總裁兼董事總經理一職時﹐公司的年產能是160万吨﹐年銷售額13億盧比（相當于2830万美元）。如今﹐India Cements的年產能已經達到900万吨﹐年銷售額達180億盧比。

隨著印度南部建筑熱的升溫﹐市場對水泥的需求幾乎接近了企業的產能﹐從而也推動India Cements產品价格的上漲。該公司通過資產出售減少債務﹐同時開拓國內外的新市場﹐降低生產成本﹐因此在經歷几年的虧損后又重新獲得盈利。在截至2006年3月31日的財政年度﹐該公司利潤達到4.531億盧比﹐是前一個財政年度的10倍﹐而之前的三年一直處于虧損狀態。這家公司還致力於開拓糖業和能源領域的業務。

今年61歲的斯里尼瓦桑先生是已故的公司創始人T.S.納拉亞納斯瓦米(T.S. Narayanaswami)的儿子﹐他曾在美國伊利諾斯州技術學院(Illinois Institute of Technology)獲得化學工程研究生學歷。斯里尼瓦桑業余間幫助印度板球管理委員會(Board of Control for Cricket)理理財。他還熱衷打高爾夫﹐他的差點達到了9。他是從India Cements位於欽奈(Chennai)的總部通過電話接受《華爾街日報》記者文‧拉姆（Ven Ram）採訪的。

華爾街日報(WSJ)：你的第一份工作是什么？你從中得到的最大收獲是什么？

斯里尼瓦桑：我的第一份工作是在美國讀研究生時擔任助教。這份工作讓我意識到上一堂課前該做多少准備工作﹐也讓我明白追求完美和提前准備的好處。

WSJ：當年初出茅廬的時候﹐你希望自己能掌握什么樣的管理原則？

斯里尼瓦桑：當初起步時要是有今天的管理經驗就好了。商學院能教給你一些基本原理﹐但只有實踐經驗才能教你怎樣運用這些原理。沒有什么能代替經驗。

WSJ：印度的水泥行業和其他國家有什么不同？

斯里尼瓦桑：印度目前是僅次于中國的第二大水泥消費國。在其他國家﹐水泥都是成批銷售的﹐而在印度﹐水泥還是一袋一袋地賣。除了中國﹐其他大部分國家的水泥市場都掌握在四到五家公司的手中﹐而在印度﹐實力雄厚的競爭者只占到市場的50%至60%﹐其餘市場被眾多小企業瓜分掉了。這個行業按每年8%至10%的速度在增長﹐但仍然不是一個成熟的市場。用銷售預拌混凝土方式來銷售水泥的构想還沒有變成現實。但我認為﹐印度目前所達到的技能、技術和效率如果說不比其他國家強的話﹐至少也不遜色。

WSJ：如果現在有人想進入水泥行業﹐你會給他什么建議？

斯里尼瓦桑：我會跟他說：小心行事。印度的水泥行業波動起伏較大﹐還沒有完全穩定下來﹐競爭的企業大約有50家﹐水泥制造厂大約有120個。因此﹐在行業上升時期進入是很重要的。

WSJ：對於想在這個行業起家的人﹐你會建議他們上商學院還是在工作中學習？

斯里尼瓦桑：我當然會建議他上商學院。在工作過程中學習當然很好﹐但學習基礎管理原理的重要性無异于掌握物理化學規律。不過﹐學到的管理原理要很好地吸收和接受﹐并把它們應用到實際情況中。

WSJ：對於一個周期波動的行業﹐管理上有哪些特別的挑戰？

斯里尼瓦桑：印度的水泥行業周期起伏﹐不是因為需求的增長有周期性﹐而是因為產能的集中增加。當所有新產能都啟用后﹐會對价格帶來很大的影響。我們的理念就是﹐只要負債水平低﹐就能安全渡過低谷時期。兩年前﹐當公司被困在低谷期時﹐我們便開始做出口業務﹐尋找新的市場﹐并降低成本。簡而言之就是﹐低生產水平費錢、低債務水平提效。

另一個持續的挑戰是如何留住中低層的人才。我們經常看到年輕的工程師先從事一些生產性的工作﹐積累一兩年經驗后就跳槽到其他行業﹐特別是IT行業﹐原因很簡單﹐這些行業收入高。但在我們公司﹐高級管理層的流動率很低﹐這讓我倍感欣慰。

WSJ：你最喜歡的商務書是哪本？

斯里尼瓦桑：邁克爾‧E‧波特的《競爭策略：產業及競爭者分析技術》(Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors)。它不是一本新書﹐但仍對現在的工作有用。波特指出﹐在一個市場分散的行業﹐以負債來換取市場份額的增長并非總能奏效。對于水泥行業﹐這句話是再正确不過的了。

星期天抽空兩個小時作shopping，爲了購買游泳的裝備。早上10點就直接殺到百盛6樓，都是運動服裝和器材的，順便也去看看跑鞋。本座有一個致命的優點，就是擁有模特的完美身材的一個部位：一雙大腳。在美國我都買9碼的鞋，偶偶也有8碼的鞋能穿下的。9碼，換算成國内的尺寸，就是40.5碼。在國内，這樣的女鞋，幾乎很難買到。當然了，我也不可能去買那些需要好幾千大元的頂級的鞋子，至於像中等的一些牌子的女鞋，希望幾乎等於零。想想看，在嬌小玲瓏的售貨小姐面前，摒住呼吸，將本座白白胖胖的玉足運用九陽收縮功，硬塞到38或者39碼的女鞋裏面，對自己日益脆弱的自信心來説，無疑于自取其辱。所以，回國后好像就買了兩雙39碼的女性，上班用。可是，頭幾次的處女穿，還是讓本座的模特大腳受了一些罪。

至於運動用的鞋子，穿上襪子，就必須要40.5碼，連39.5碼都覺得腳被委屈了。不過這次shopping的運氣不錯，還真有一雙40.5碼的跑鞋，還是女式的。售貨小姐看我的高興經，又勸我不如再買一雙偏小的41.5碼的男式運動鞋。穿上去，覺得有如另一重天，所以爲了好馬佩好鞍，就也買下這雙男鞋。買好東西回家的路上，我想起了在美國Victoria 's secret買内衣的經歷。售貨小姐也是一樣熱情，只是帶了自豪的笑容，把你引領到適合你尺碼的區域，可惜這個區域一定是個小眾區域，選擇的式樣都很少。沒辦法，那是美國女性的competitive advantage。

老爸縂說大腳好。可是我又不要坐江山，這麽大的腳好處在那裏？難道說一雙大腳，也方便本座行走江湖？

刚才电视里采访江南俏的主席张蓝。才知道一些她背后的故事，采访她的都是很大派的公司，麦肯希，还有大的广告公司。我不知道张蓝如何看这些人的提问，她只是重复一句话：你没有做过，所以可能你不清楚。。。。。。张蓝说：如果你要做餐厅，你会变得很丑。还说：她一辈子只要做好一件事，做餐厅是一个勤行，勤奋，勤俭，勤勉。

突然觉得自己和张蓝有那么一点相同的地方。都认为在国外的经历改变了自己。她出国的时候，31岁。我回国的时候29岁。也都是想做一头老黄牛，如果一辈子只能做一件事的话。

父親出院一個星期了，看上去恢復的不錯。3個月之後，需要到醫院再作MRI，檢查心臟的收縮功能，正常人必須>50%，不知道父親的能夠恢復到多少。

看報紙的時候，看到Philips Taiwan Ex-CEO羅益強也得了和父親同樣的心肌梗死。而且非常戲劇性。羅益強平時非常注意鍛煉，所以身體一直很好。有一天，醫生來給他做健康檢查，告訴他一切正常，身體非常好。可是醫生收拾東西，離開他辦公室20分鐘以後，羅益強發病，被緊急搶救。羅益強說，他的中國醫生讓他靜養，減少運動。跟我從父親的醫生和看到的資料一緻。可是羅益強的荷蘭醫生卻建議他每週要加強運動，因爲心肌梗死是由於全身的血液循環能力和氧氣交換率不足導致的，所以更需要透過運動來強化，我覺得也有道理。

羅益強生病后，馬上給他的Group CEO說：no game anymore, I quit my jobs. 他給現在努力工作的人們的建議是：work hard but you need to work smart. 現在他每天做2個小時的運動，真的很厲害。想想自己每天半個小時，都覺得很疼。

星云大师在80岁生日的时候，说80岁以后要做自己。他回顾自己的一生

10岁之前：在成长

10-20岁：努力学习

20-30岁：寻师问道

30-40岁：文学人生，勤于笔耕

40-50岁：佛光山开山打拼

50-60岁：哲学人生

60-70岁：伦理人生

70-80岁：佛祖人生

看到这段新闻的时候，让我想起了上次去北京法源寺昆灵殿看到的下半联楹联：

不去不来，心头有愿月已圆。

这个下联的上联很不好配，是不是？

是不是有点为我们的男性同胞们感到一点点委屈。女性有着敢比天齐的收入水平和独立创新的自主意识，可是谈到家庭重担，还是高达90%多的贡献来自于丈夫。真的吗？真的有这样的好事？我是独立的新女性，所以我自己口袋里的钱，自己支配。但是因为你是我的夫，所以请你负担所有的房贷，水电账单，娱乐消费？

但是，反过来，男生又不傻，为什么还愿意结婚？必然有着除了financial以外，其他方面的考量。比如孩子。那么，我们是不是又可以这样想：如果这个男生不是很需要一个孩子，那么家庭给他带来的总收益也许无法抵消他为之付出的总成本，包括自由，忍受黄脸婆的琐碎？

哈哈哈，其实以上所写的推论忽略了最重要的一点，爱情，或者感情。也许有这样的“傻子”，愿意当你的夫，被你这个新女性以婚姻的名义合情合理的剥削，只是因为他爱你，想和你这辈子作个伴。所以，我们至此成功论证了一句古老的话：婚姻是建立在爱情上的。鼓掌！！！！

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The local dailies reported with pictures and charts on yesterday’s press briefing on the findings of wealth management by couples survey commissioned by HBAP. The story was carried in both the general and financial news sections, with HK Commercial Daily treating it as a front page lead story and HKET dedicating a half page feature on it.

 The briefing, hosted by HBAP Head of Wealth Management ASP PFS Bruno Lee, revealed the findings on the roles and responsibilities in couples’ financial planning and wealth management as well as financial aspirations for their children, their families and themselves.

  It was reported that the survey, conducted amongst 600 married persons, revealed that  today’s generation of HK couples are facing the challenges of both securing their children’s future whilst continuing to support their elderly parents.

 It was said that 37% of respondents said they want to save an average of HKD800,000 to send their children to study abroad, and nearly 60% of children aged 7 to 18 receive an average of HKD1,050 pocket money a month. 70% actually support their elderly parents, with average monthly provision of HKD3,000.

 Lee said couples are facing huge financial demands to support three generations in the family. However, they do not expect their cycle to continue. The survey showed that 36% have never thought about their own retirement planning, and it is therefore critical for couples to start financial planning earlier. Moreover, they should learn how to make use of different financial tools to growth their wealth amid inflations.

 Some dailies also highlighted that despite the fact that equality in couples’ educational and earning power is becoming more apparent, 80% of respondents still consider husbands as “heads of families”. 77% agree to the statement that “husband should financially support the whole family even though the wife may have a similar earning ability”, and in fact 90% of husband pay for half to all of household expenses. On the contrary, 51% say that wives are the “financial controller”, who take a more prominent role in deciding on family matters.

 It was also highlighted that whilst HK couples may still be traditional in adopting a shared approach in financial arrangement for family savings and expenses, they are rather independent in making decisions on personal savings and investments.

 The research said that whilst 55% said that they kept a common pool of funds for daily expenses and family savings, to which husbands contribute 96%, 54% have personal pocket money. However, with regards to personal savings or investments, couples are less transparent, as only 56% have an idea of how much their spouses keep in savings or investments. Moreover, 43% say they would not consider their spouses’ views at all when making investment choices.

 Lee said the findings show how traditional Asian values and western individualism are at work – as couples tend to be traditional on family planning, but prefer independence in personal investments. Lee said these can be attributed to different investment appetites of male and female. According to another HBAP survey, male investors tend to choose higher risks products like equity and unit trusts, whilst female investors prefer lower risks investment.

 Some papers also noted that HBAP has registered a 36% growth in income from wealth management in 1H06 year-on-year. Lee also said that the Bank currently has some 700 financial planning managers, and plan to expand the team to around 800 at year-end.

看中国时报上，采访对岸的老李先生。让自己对他的看法有些改观。记者主要想问问他如何评价他的后任小陈同学。这位老李先生作了非常好的“不粘锅”的广告。他说：“诸位请看，这是鄙人和尊敬的蒋老师一起就座谈话的照片。请注意，鄙人的屁股只有1/2座在椅垫上，另外的1/2就是悬空，因为在蒋老师面前，鄙人必须恭恭敬敬。现在，也是如此，鄙人已经不在位子上，只要小陈同学在当政的合法位置上，鄙人还是要对他尊敬。“ 虽然可能给人觉得书生迂腐，可是也体现了对制度和对合法渠道产生的结果的尊重。不过，老李先生对老李太太没有那么多的珠宝倒是很自豪，可惜媒体调查显示老李太太的珠宝数量的确比不上小陈太太的多，不过论总价格的话，老李太太就厉害一些了，不过老李太太行事低调，没有留下太多的把柄而已。

父亲节，父亲也出院了。

看中国时报上，有林青霞写的纪念她父亲的文章和一幅亲笔画。我很喜欢那幅用水彩笔勾勒的画，一个少女的背影，面朝着大海，也可能是天空。报上也刊登了其他普通人与父亲的文章，比如照顾老年智障的实际困难等等。对于上辈，大概很少的晚辈能做到问心无愧。

 

不知道什么原因，最近常常想起以前看过的一部电影《Big Fish》，我从来就没有真正看懂过这个电影，就像<Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind>一样，可是印象却很深。“大鱼”讲了父亲年轻时充满魔幻色彩的探寻经历，儿子一直认为父亲在吹牛从而鄙夷父亲，可是在父亲重病时终于开始去查验父亲所讲的那些经历。不得不说另一个也很喜欢，但是却看不懂的电影，Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind，我看到的中文译名叫《王牌冤家》，这个名字完全失去了电影英文名的essence。最近看到了关于这个电影的评论和资料，才略微明白了什么。别人说这是给30岁的人看的，可能我的智力水平还没有达到普通30岁人的正常水平吧，还记得当时看这个电影的时候，好像回国有段时间了，很是难过。觉得自己就算没有去那个clinic，记忆还是模糊的，不算数的，好像过去的大多数事情都被抽离了真实的土壤，像那些烟圈，你能闻到它的气味，也许还被呛得流泪过，可是转眼间，空气就很新鲜，你开始怀疑是否你真的闻到过那个烟味，进而，你会怀疑你是否真的在那段时间，在那个有烟味的场所出现过。

 

原来，让自己难过的并不是我快忘了你，而是我们各自迎接新生活的姿态，否定了那些回忆的真实性，也否定了那七到八年里自己存在过的意义。小时候练习毛笔字，有一种墨水和毛边纸相配合，可以让先前写过的字迹很快消失，于是可以在同一张纸上重新开始写字。好像，那几年时光里的自己，就如同毛边纸上要仔细辨认才能找到的淡淡的痕迹。有一天半夜，忘记关电视，被电视吵醒，放着潘越云的歌，“谢谢你曾经爱过我”，我起来喝了瓶矿泉水，发了发呆。

 

以后，如果够幸运，希望自己能是一头不会忘却的大象，就算看到了很多的drawbacks的mundane， 自己还能说：I will remember you. 如果非要选择，宁愿忘了自己，也不愿忘记另一个人对自己的期许， 因为所有存在过的意义，或者证据，都在于：在这个过客的世界里，有一个人努力的记着你。

 

作词：郑华娟 作曲：郑华娟

谢谢你曾经爱我 当我同样被遗忘在黄昏之中

现在我才知道 当初你有多伤痛

谢谢你曾经爱我 那是当在我真正爱过了以后

现在我才知道 当初你有多难过

谢谢你曾经爱过我 你的付出 我曾不明了

谢谢你曾经爱过我 现在我什么也不想说

谢谢你曾经爱过我 如果现在你遇见落寞的我

请给我一个拥抱 不要拒绝我

谢谢你曾经爱我 种种伤心的往事 已不堪诉说

如果不愿想起 也不为了隐藏过错

谢谢你曾经爱我 这相同的情感可会再获得

现在我才知道 我是如何被爱过

谢谢你曾经爱我 你的付出 我曾不明了

谢谢你曾经爱过我 现在我什么也不想说

谢谢你曾经爱过我 如果你现在遇见哭泣的我

请给我一个微笑 不要安慰我........

 

 

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隨著企業規模的擴大，矩陣管理在組織中的運用就愈加普遍，可以說，幾乎所有稍具規模的組織都屬於矩陣組織，組織中的成員都至少受到來自兩個向度的管制。只不過，一般人都過度僵化於傳統樹枝狀的組織結構，認為一名部屬必定只受一名主管的直接管轄，因而對矩陣管理與矩陣組織無法適應，衍生出管理上的問題。

　　採取矩陣管理的第一個目的，是基於專業化的考量。組織中任何一位成員均非全能，僅能在某些領域中，相對地比其他成員更為專業些，透過組織的設計來強化管理，讓不同領域中相對專業的成員彼此互補，以充分發揮每個人不同的專長，避開各自的弱點，進而讓組織的整體運作效能達到相對最佳化。

　　專業考量之外，矩陣管理也基於分工的需求。一個組織須具備的基本功能不少，若由同一名主管直接掌管不同的功能，時間上並不允許，透過矩陣管理則可達到專業分工的效果。

　　此外，矩陣管理也是因應組織運作統一化的需求而生，讓組織運作得以依循統一的原則。例如，公司的人事制度必須各部門統一，即便因不同職系而略有差異，但仍舊在同一套系統下運作，主管無權在自己領導的部門內，擅自主張另外一套人事制度。基於這些考量與需求，矩陣管理早已存在組織的運作中，甚至普遍到讓人感受不到其存在，因此絕非一套特殊、新創的管理模式。

　　矩陣管理分為多種類型，其一為基本型。以組織中的人事、總務、財務等功能而言，各部門均依循統一的制度運作，在此情形下，其他功能的部門主管並未對其部門擁有百分之百的主導權。當產品規劃部門的主管要進用幹部時，必須遵循人事部門所訂定的規則；其公務報支也必須經由財務部門的核可，否則，將無法進入公司的運作系統。這便是矩陣組織的基本特質，沒有人會質疑這種運作方式。

　　另一種矩陣管理屬於局部型，其範圍僅及於組織內某些部門間的互動，其產生的灰色地帶較多，也較容易出現問題。例如業務部門的主管雖掌管銷售功能，但其銷售策略卻不能完全自主，必須依照產品規劃部門訂定的原則，不能為了爭取業績而任意降價；對於客戶的放帳額度與時間，業務主管也必須經過財務部門的同意，不能擅自決定更改。

　　矩陣管理也應用在專案性的組織中，例如，Y2K專案小組的成員來自各個不同部門，包括財務、總務、倉管……等，但是在專案執行期間，所有成員一律由該專案的負責人統轄，與專案相關的事務必須向專案負責人報告，而非向其原屬部門的主管。

　　專案負責人在此不僅握有絕對的指揮權，成員也並非只是個人人力上的「支援」而已，還必須扮演原屬部門對應於專案小組的窗口，原屬部門的主管必須持續掌握由此一窗口傳遞回來的訊息，並採取相對應的配合措施。也就是說，當專案性的任務需求出現時，各部門並非單單派人參與專案小組就算了事，而是必須在該部門的專業功能上，提供一切必要的資源。正因如此，專案才能在各部門同心協力之下，順利地推動。

　　當組織中有越來越多的矩陣，往往令人感到不習慣，就此而言，組織內的成員必須明確地認知到，整個組織的設計是功能導向，一切奠基於專業化的考量，功能性單位的主管對其扮演的功能具有百分之百的專業主導權，其他成員必須尊重之，並遵循其設計出來的制度。隨著主導權相對而來的，是對其功能的發揮肩負百分之百的責任。

　　矩陣就像電波一般，在組織中無所不在，普遍到讓人感覺不到其存在，因此不要用傳統對組織的觀念來看待，認為主管對其部門具有百分之百的主導權。事實上，一名主管能夠順利推動部門的運作，主因在於針對其無法主導的部分，完全遵循功能性單位所主導訂立的制度，一旦違反這些制度，無視功能性單位的存在，部門的運作反而會窒礙難行。

　　此時可能產生的質疑是，功能性單位的專業程度不盡完美怎麼辦？然而，組織中任何功能所謂的專業，都只是就相對專業而言，而沒有絕對專業存在。在公司的團隊運作當中，在某一功能領域相對其他成員專業者，便應取得該領域的主導權，如此方能使組織的運作效能盡可能地提升。

　　另一方面，功能性政策的形成是一種互動的過程，當功能性單位研擬一項政策時，必須充分瞭解執行單位的執行環境，統合各單位反應的意見，不能閉門造車，如此才能充分發揮專業；相對地，各執行單位倘若對某項政策感到窒礙難行，或是政策考量不夠周延時，也必須積極主動地與研擬政策的單位協商。不過，在獲致結論之前， 仍必須依循既有的制度，否則，組織的運作易陷入混亂。

　　組織是由眾多不完美的成員組合而成，其能否完善運作的關鍵在於互補，透過功能性單位與執行單位之間的互動，找出政策、制度上的漏洞，便是以組織的互補效果來補救個人的不完美。在專業與協商的相輔相成下，功能性政策的可行性與涵蓋面將可因此提高、擴大。

　　專業上的互補之外，還有地緣互補的問題必須考量，同樣一個政策或制度，有時會因地緣特性的差異，而必須彈性調整，例如行銷部門設計出來統一格式的店招，高雄與台北適用的尺寸便可能不同，而必須因地制宜。

　　地緣上的分離，也同時產生矩陣組織的編制問題，例如每個分公司都有帳管人員，其功能運作上的規範係由總公司的帳管部門統一訂定、管轄，但其編制上卻不見得必然直屬總公司，由於帳管人員屬於常駐性的職位，基於平時管制上的方便，其人事編制上歸屬於分公司較為合適。相對地，如果屬於短期性質，則編制上仍可直屬總公司，而以派駐方式行之即可。

　　在矩陣組織當中，每一位成員至少受到直屬主管與功能性主管的雙重統轄，其最常出現的問題，包括因產生的灰色地帶導致兩方面的主管都忽略 了管制的義務，或是兩方面的主管爭搶主導權。問題產生的關鍵在於主管對本身的職掌缺乏清楚的認知，並且誤以為管轄權不是全有、就是全無。此外，來自兩方面的管轄權力之間並無主、輔之分，也沒有位階之分，一切運作均建立在對本身專業的堅持，以及對他人專業的尊重。例如事業群主管基於業務考量欲對客戶放寬授信額度時，便必須得到徵信部門主管的同意，儘管兩者的位階可能差距很大；如果無法說服徵信部門主管，則可利用「Ｚ型溝通」方式，與其上一層主管協商。

　　當然，並非每一次的協商都可以得到最好的結局，一個好的構想甚至可能因此而被抹煞，但是這卻確保了組織運作的有條不紊；如果為了確保每一個好的創意、構想都能被付諸實行，反而讓組織陷入混亂，其付出的代價更加龐大。以美國矽谷的管理哲學而言，矽谷是一個高度講求創新的地方，公司可以任由一群人恣意發揮想像，然而，一旦被視為有發展潛力的創意出現時，卻馬上會被導入一個極為嚴謹的管理體系當中，無論是研發、生產、行銷的規劃均受到嚴密掌控，其道理在於唯有透過嚴謹的管理，創新的實踐才有機會成真，創新也才會產生價值。好比開花雖美，但別忘了結果才是真正目的。

　　矩陣管理是基於專業、分工與運作統一性的考量而產生，隨著組織規模的擴大，分工日趨細膩，其應用範圍也勢必愈加普遍，因此，組織中每一位成員，無論是主管或部屬，都必須瞭解矩陣組織的原理，適應矩陣管理的模式，才能使組織在擴大之後，仍能保有運作的專業與管理的效率。(Y10129)

  “最大好处是日后可在当地发行债券,吸收资金,而经营条件会全面享有国民待遇,如税率征收及推行存款保障计划,长远更可为该行分拆中国业务上市铺路,不过,成为内地注册的认可机构后,在内地的全资附属公司就需要接受银监会的全面监管“。

 

快快的想法如下：如果“全资附属公司“发行人民币债券，获取资金发展自身网络等固定投资建设，则不必支付外国股东的10%-15%左右的equity cost. 当然在cost side来说，是对外行有利的。对于税收的影响恐怕不是很影响大局，反正对外资行的外币业务的税收优惠也会由于迟早的税率统一而逐渐消失。本人私下认为最大的好处可能并不能在于成本这边的考量。更多的可能是获取收入的考虑，因为只有全面享有国民待遇，外行才能在产品线上摆脱限制，从而能利用自己的产品优势与国内银行展开竞争。

 

自进入内地市场以来,经过多年发展,中国香港地区多家银行都建立了各自的分行网络。正积极拓展内地业务的香港两大银行— 恒生银行和东亚银行,目前正考虑将内地分行“本地化”即注册申请为内地“本地认可机构”,以享受国民待遇

 

  自进入内地市场以来,经过多年发展,中国香港地区多家银行都建立了各自的分行网络。正积极拓展内地业务的香港两大银行———恒生银行和东亚银行,目前正考虑将内地分行“本地化”即注册申请为内地“本地认可机构”,以享受国民待遇。

 

  按照加入世界贸易组织的时间表,今年底中国内地将向外资全面开放市场。据悉,银监会正就外资银行内地“本地认可机构”条例进行非正式咨询。银监会主席刘明康上月初出席中国香港银行公会演讲时指出,内地市场开放后,外资行可循两条路径进行营运———以外资行内地分行或注册成立为内地“本地认可机构”,后者可以享受100%国民待遇。

 

  香港地区媒体2日披露,东亚银行计划将目前该行内地分行,注册申请为内地“本地认可机构”,成为东亚银行在内地的全资附属公司,管理层将会在短期内把有关建议提请董事会批准,然后展开筹备工作;若建议获批,该行会将中国内地业务部设于北京分行或上海分行。

 

  恒生银行副董事长柯清辉日前在接受采访时表示,如果相关法律容许中国香港地区银行在内地的分行注册成为“本地认可机构”,享有完全国民待遇,恒生银行也会考虑申请。

 

  柯清辉承认,银监会很早以前,已经非正式地咨询业界有关实行内地本地注册的条例。柯清辉表示,若内地法规要求银行在内地成立控股公司持有内地业务,该行会遵循于内地注册并成立总部,该行已经就此筹划,但最重要是要视乎银监会的法规。

 

  柯清辉表示,随着中国金融业将于年底开放,恒生银行未来1至2年会加快发展内地业务的步伐,投资10亿港元,用作开设分行及聘请员工。如果内地依循加入世贸的规则,今年底全面开放金融市场,恒生有信心在3年内将网点增至30个。

 

  据介绍,从外资行分行转变为享有法人地位的内地“本地认可机构”,最大好处是日后可在当地发行债券,吸收资金,而经营条件会全面享有国民待遇,如税率征收及推行存款保障计划,长远更可为该行分拆中国业务上市铺路,不过,成为内地注册的认可机构后,在内地的全资附属公司就需要接受银监会的全面监管,而母公司则继续接受中国香港地区金融管理局的全面监管。